AEGIS/Cascade
AEGIS · Signature feature
Cascade intelligence
When an event fires, automatically visualise the causal cascade through 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order effects across supply chains, currencies, and portfolios.
Red Sea container traffic down 38% week-over-week
AIS data shows sustained disruption to Bab-el-Mandeb container transits. Major carriers rerouting via Cape of Good Hope; transit times +12 days. Insurance war-risk premium up 40%.
Event
Red Sea container traffic down 38% week-over-week
Severity: HIGH
1st order
Container freight rates Asia-Europe +35% within 14 days
T+14d·p=0.82·-1.2%acc 60%
Industrials
2nd order
Inventory carrying costs rise for European importers
T+28d·p=0.68·-0.8%acc 60%
Consumer DiscretionaryIndustrials
3rd order
Margin pressure flows to H&M, Volvo, Wallenius Wilhelmsen via supply chain
T+45d·p=0.54·-1.4%acc 60%
Consumer DiscretionaryIndustrials
Probabilities and impacts are model estimates conditioned on signal vector and historical analog cosine.
Cross-product synthesis
- NORSE Identified 4 entities in Knowledge Graph with direct exposure.
- ARGUS 2 active hypotheses reference this event as a supporting signal.
- COMPLY 1 portfolio crossed climate-adjusted FV alert threshold.
Historical analog match
Closest analog: similar shipping disruption (2024-08, correlation 0.81). Actual market impact realised: -1.4% sector relative over T+30d.
Analog matcher →