AEGIS/Cascade
AEGIS · Signature feature
Cascade intelligence
When an event fires, automatically visualise the causal cascade through 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order effects across supply chains, currencies, and portfolios.
PLA Navy declares exclusion zone east of Taiwan
Three-day live-fire exercises in zone overlapping major shipping lanes. Container traffic rerouted; semiconductor tape-out delivery windows in jeopardy.
Event
PLA Navy declares exclusion zone east of Taiwan
Severity: CRITICAL
1st order
Semiconductor lead times +21 days
T+10d·p=0.78·-2.2%acc 60%
Information Technology
2nd order
Nokia + Ericsson 5G rollout delayed
T+30d·p=0.62·-1.4%acc 60%
Information TechnologyCommunication Services
3rd order
Volvo Cars EV production constrained
T+60d·p=0.55·-2.6%acc 60%
Consumer Discretionary
Probabilities and impacts are model estimates conditioned on signal vector and historical analog cosine.
Cross-product synthesis
- NORSE Identified 4 entities in Knowledge Graph with direct exposure.
- ARGUS 2 active hypotheses reference this event as a supporting signal.
- COMPLY 1 portfolio crossed climate-adjusted FV alert threshold.
Historical analog match
Closest analog: similar shipping disruption (2024-08, correlation 0.81). Actual market impact realised: -1.4% sector relative over T+30d.
Analog matcher →