AEGIS/Cascade
AEGIS · Signature feature
Cascade intelligence
When an event fires, automatically visualise the causal cascade through 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order effects across supply chains, currencies, and portfolios.
Nordic hydro reservoir levels 14% below seasonal norm
Persistent low precipitation across Norway and Sweden brings reservoir fills to 58% vs 72% historical. Power prices firming; aluminium smelter contracts repricing.
Event
Nordic hydro reservoir levels 14% below seasonal norm
Severity: MEDIUM
1st order
Nordic power forward curve +14% on 2026 calendar
T+7d·p=0.81·+1.2%acc 60%
Utilities
2nd order
Norsk Hydro smelter electricity cost +18% Q1
T+45d·p=0.72·-2.4%acc 60%
Materials
3rd order
Energy-intensive industrial relocation conversations re-open
T+120d·p=0.45·-1.1%acc 60%
MaterialsIndustrials
Probabilities and impacts are model estimates conditioned on signal vector and historical analog cosine.
Cross-product synthesis
- NORSE Identified 2 entities in Knowledge Graph with direct exposure.
- ARGUS 2 active hypotheses reference this event as a supporting signal.
- COMPLY 1 portfolio crossed climate-adjusted FV alert threshold.
Historical analog match
Closest analog: similar shipping disruption (2024-08, correlation 0.81). Actual market impact realised: -1.4% sector relative over T+30d.
Analog matcher →