AEGIS/Cascade
AEGIS · Signature feature
Cascade intelligence
When an event fires, automatically visualise the causal cascade through 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order effects across supply chains, currencies, and portfolios.
ESMA publishes Q3 SFDR amendment consultation
Proposes 85% taxonomy alignment minimum for Article 9 designation. ~40% of EU Article 9 funds estimated to require reclassification.
Event
ESMA publishes Q3 SFDR amendment consultation
Severity: MEDIUM
1st order
Compliance costs rise for asset managers with Article 9 mandates
T+60d·p=0.86·-0.6%acc 60%
Financials
2nd order
Storebrand + Nordea fund reclassifications anticipated
T+120d·p=0.62·-0.4%acc 60%
Financials
3rd order
Pure-play green ETF differentiation widens
T+180d·p=0.55·+0.5%acc 60%
Financials
Probabilities and impacts are model estimates conditioned on signal vector and historical analog cosine.
Cross-product synthesis
- NORSE Identified 3 entities in Knowledge Graph with direct exposure.
- ARGUS 2 active hypotheses reference this event as a supporting signal.
- COMPLY 1 portfolio crossed climate-adjusted FV alert threshold.
Historical analog match
Closest analog: similar shipping disruption (2024-08, correlation 0.81). Actual market impact realised: -1.4% sector relative over T+30d.
Analog matcher →