AEGIS/Cascade
AEGIS · Signature feature
Cascade intelligence
When an event fires, automatically visualise the causal cascade through 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order effects across supply chains, currencies, and portfolios.
Strait of Hormuz tanker incident
Two oil tankers boarded in Strait of Hormuz; one detained. Insurance war-risk premium up 60%. 17% of seaborne oil transits this route.
Event
Strait of Hormuz tanker incident
Severity: HIGH
1st order
Brent crude +$4.50/bbl spike within 24h
T+1d·p=0.92·+4.2%acc 60%
Energy
2nd order
Frontline + Stolt-Nielsen day rates surge
T+7d·p=0.84·+6.1%acc 60%
EnergyIndustrials
3rd order
Equinor production hedge premium captured in Q1
T+60d·p=0.61·+2.4%acc 60%
Energy
Probabilities and impacts are model estimates conditioned on signal vector and historical analog cosine.
Cross-product synthesis
- NORSE Identified 3 entities in Knowledge Graph with direct exposure.
- ARGUS 2 active hypotheses reference this event as a supporting signal.
- COMPLY 1 portfolio crossed climate-adjusted FV alert threshold.
Historical analog match
Closest analog: similar shipping disruption (2024-08, correlation 0.81). Actual market impact realised: -1.4% sector relative over T+30d.
Analog matcher →