Analog matcher

Automatically matches current risk events against historical analogs by signal-vector cosine + cascade topology. Outcomes are realised market data, not forecast.

Current

Red Sea container traffic down 38%

Closest analog

Suez Canal Ever Given blockage (2021-Q2)

correlation 0.81

What happened

Container freight +52% peak; Asia-EU disrupted for 8 weeks; H&M underperformed sector by 4.1%.

Current

PLA exclusion zone east of Taiwan

Closest analog

PLA Pelosi visit response (2022-08)

correlation 0.74

What happened

TSMC -7% in 3 weeks; Nordic 5G rollout delayed; defense rotation +12% over 8 weeks.

Current

Strait of Hormuz tanker incident

Closest analog

Hormuz tanker boardings (2019-06)

correlation 0.78

What happened

Brent +10% in 5 days; Frontline +28%; Equinor +6% relative.

Current

EU LNG sanctions tightening

Closest analog

EU sixth sanctions package (2022-06)

correlation 0.82

What happened

Norwegian gas premium +18% over 90 days; Equinor outperformed sector by 14%.

Current

Baltic submarine cable severance

Closest analog

BalticConnector incident (2023-10)

correlation 0.87

What happened

Saab +18% in 6 weeks; Kongsberg +14%; defense rotation persisted 5 months.

Current

Nordic hydro shortfall 14%

Closest analog

Nordic dry year (2022-Q3)

correlation 0.71

What happened

NO power forward +24%; NHY underperformed LME ALU by 9%; smelter contracts repriced.