AEGIS/Cascade
AEGIS · Signature feature
Cascade intelligence
When an event fires, automatically visualise the causal cascade through 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order effects across supply chains, currencies, and portfolios.
EU adopts 18th sanctions package targeting Russian LNG re-exports
EU Council adopts package banning trans-shipment of Russian LNG through European ports. Affects Belgium, Netherlands, France; spillover to Nordic terminals.
Event
EU adopts 18th sanctions package targeting Russian LNG re-exports
Severity: HIGH
1st order
Norwegian + US LNG benefit from re-export channel substitution
T+7d·p=0.84·+1.5%acc 60%
Energy
2nd order
EU gas storage drawdown rate accelerates
T+30d·p=0.62·-0.6%acc 60%
Utilities
3rd order
Equinor margin uplift visible in Q4 guidance
T+60d·p=0.71·+2.1%acc 60%
Energy
Probabilities and impacts are model estimates conditioned on signal vector and historical analog cosine.
Cross-product synthesis
- NORSE Identified 3 entities in Knowledge Graph with direct exposure.
- ARGUS 2 active hypotheses reference this event as a supporting signal.
- COMPLY 1 portfolio crossed climate-adjusted FV alert threshold.
Historical analog match
Closest analog: similar shipping disruption (2024-08, correlation 0.81). Actual market impact realised: -1.4% sector relative over T+30d.
Analog matcher →