AEGIS/Cascade
AEGIS · Signature feature
Cascade intelligence
When an event fires, automatically visualise the causal cascade through 1st-, 2nd-, and 3rd-order effects across supply chains, currencies, and portfolios.
Submarine cable severance in Baltic
Two Baltic data cables and one power interconnector simultaneously severed. NATO consults Article 4. Estonia attributes to suspect vessel.
Event
Submarine cable severance in Baltic
Severity: CRITICAL
1st order
Re-routing via terrestrial fiber adds 18ms; cloud SLAs strained
T+5d·p=0.71·-0.7%acc 60%
Communication Services
2nd order
Defense spending uplift visible at Saab + Kongsberg
T+30d·p=0.78·+2.6%acc 60%
Industrials
3rd order
Hardened-infrastructure capex flows to Hexagon, Bouvet, NEL ASA
T+90d·p=0.62·+1.4%acc 60%
IndustrialsInformation Technology
Probabilities and impacts are model estimates conditioned on signal vector and historical analog cosine.
Cross-product synthesis
- NORSE Identified 4 entities in Knowledge Graph with direct exposure.
- ARGUS 2 active hypotheses reference this event as a supporting signal.
- COMPLY 1 portfolio crossed climate-adjusted FV alert threshold.
Historical analog match
Closest analog: similar shipping disruption (2024-08, correlation 0.81). Actual market impact realised: -1.4% sector relative over T+30d.
Analog matcher →