Signal trust

The system learns which data sources actually predict markets. Signals that contribute to correct hypotheses get louder. Signals that don't get quieter. After enough evaluations, the weights become a proprietary epistemic asset.

ARGUSKey insight

After 1,497 evaluations, the system has learned that geopolitical and maritime signals (UCDP conflict data, BarentsWatch AIS) are the strongest predictors of Nordic market movements. Sentiment signals have been consistently downweighted — the system discovered that news tone and social velocity are lagging, not leading, indicators for this hypothesis set. Climate and regulatory signals remain mixed and slow-moving.

Total evaluations

1,497

Avg weight

1.32

Most improved

+1.31

UCDP Conflict Events

Geopolitical

1.97

avg · 4 sources

◆ 0.02 30d

Shipping

1.82

avg · 3 sources

◆ 0.00 30d

Macro

1.51

avg · 6 sources

◆ 0.02 30d

Smart Money

1.34

avg · 5 sources

◆ 0.04 30d

Satellite

1.27

avg · 3 sources

▲ +0.06 30d

Regulatory

0.87

avg · 3 sources

◆ -0.03 30d

Climate

0.84

avg · 3 sources

◆ -0.02 30d

Sentiment

0.56

avg · 3 sources

◆ -0.03 30d

Weight evolution · 180 days · 16 representative signals

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Trust leaderboard · 30 sourcesrange 0.3–2.5 · baseline 1.0

#1
UCDP Conflict Events
Geopolitical89 evals78% hit
2.31
▲ rising
#2
BarentsWatch AIS
Shipping71 evals76% hit
2.14
▲ rising
#3
ACLED Event Data
Geopolitical76 evals74% hit
2.04
▲ rising
#4
Sanctions Tracking
Geopolitical64 evals71% hit
1.92
▲ rising
#5
ECB Rate Decisions
Macro68 evals71% hit
1.87
◆ stable
#6
Port Congestion Index
Shipping52 evals69% hit
1.78
▲ rising
#7
Norges Bank Policy
Macro41 evals68% hit
1.71
▲ rising
#8
Dark Pool Volume Anomalies
Smart Money62 evals67% hit
1.64
▲ rising
#9
GDELT Global Events
Geopolitical58 evals65% hit
1.61
◆ stable
#10
Yield Curve Signals
Macro54 evals66% hit
1.58
◆ stable
#11
AISstream Global
Shipping48 evals64% hit
1.54
◆ stable
#12
Sentinel-1 SAR Backscatter
Satellite47 evals63% hit
1.52
▲ rising
#13
Insider Transactions
Smart Money58 evals62% hit
1.48
◆ stable
#14
Nordic CPI
Macro46 evals61% hit
1.41
◆ stable
#15
Sentinel-2 Optical
Satellite41 evals60% hit
1.34
◆ stable
#16
Eurozone PMI
Macro38 evals59% hit
1.32
◆ stable
#17
Options Flow Anomalies
Smart Money49 evals59% hit
1.31
◆ stable
#18
Sea Surface Temperature
Climate36 evals58% hit
1.28
◆ stable
#19
13F Holdings Shifts
Smart Money36 evals57% hit
1.22
◆ stable
#20
Federal Reserve
Macro44 evals55% hit
1.18
▼ falling
#21
Short Interest Changes
Smart Money41 evals52% hit
1.06
◆ stable
#22
ESMA Publications
Regulatory39 evals51% hit
1.04
◆ stable
#23
VIIRS Nighttime Lights
Satellite33 evals49% hit
0.94
▼ falling
#24
ERA5 Climate Anomalies
Climate31 evals48% hit
0.91
▼ falling
#25
EUR-Lex Legislative Pipeline
Regulatory32 evals46% hit
0.86
▼ falling
#26
Finanstilsynet Notices
Regulatory24 evals42% hit
0.71
▼ falling
#27
Earnings Call Tone
Sentiment51 evals41% hit
0.69
▼ falling
#28
News Flow Analysis
Sentiment67 evals36% hit
0.52
▼ falling
#29
Social Media Velocity
Sentiment73 evals34% hit
0.47
▼ falling
#30
Extreme Weather Events
Climate28 evals31% hit
0.34
▼ falling

Recent adjustments · last 8

2h agoUCDP Conflict Events↑ 2.20 → 2.31H-0847✓
2h agoNews Flow Analysis↓ 0.55 → 0.52H-0847✓
12h agoBarentsWatch AIS↑ 2.04 → 2.14H-0843✓
1d agoDark Pool Volume Anomalies↑ 1.56 → 1.64H-0843✓
1d agoOptions Flow Anomalies↓ 1.38 → 1.31H-0843✓
3d agoECB Rate Decisions↑ 1.78 → 1.87H-0839✓
3d agoSocial Media Velocity↓ 0.50 → 0.47H-0839✓
4d agoSanctions Tracking↑ 1.83 → 1.92H-0836✓

How it works

+5% · supporting signal on a validated hypothesis (or contradicting on an invalidated one)
−5% · supporting signal on an invalidated hypothesis (or contradicting on a validated one)
Weights are bounded to [0.30, 2.50]; below 0.30 would silence a signal entirely, which we never do — there is always information in disagreement
Every adjustment is written to the Trust Layer with the triggering hypothesis ID and a SHA-256 hash · zero revisionist history possible