ARGUS/Conviction Index
ARGUS
Conviction index
How bullish is the market on each narrative — and how FRAGILE is the consensus? When conviction weakens before price moves, that's alpha.
AI infrastructure buildout
18d at this level · trend stable
Conviction 0.82Fragility 0.34
positioning
81
options Skew
42
analyst Revisions
61
insider Activity
58
narrative Consistency
86
Nordic energy renaissance
22d at this level · trend strengthening
Conviction 0.67Fragility 0.41
positioning
72
options Skew
61
analyst Revisions
54
insider Activity
68
narrative Consistency
71
EU defense re-armament
34d at this level · trend strengthening
Conviction 0.71Fragility 0.28
positioning
78
options Skew
46
analyst Revisions
72
insider Activity
61
narrative Consistency
84
China deflation trap
11d at this level · trend weakening
Conviction 0.58Fragility 0.62
positioning
62
options Skew
34
analyst Revisions
48
insider Activity
32
narrative Consistency
51
GLP-1 obesity dominance
41d at this level · trend stable
Conviction 0.78Fragility 0.55
positioning
84
options Skew
52
analyst Revisions
71
insider Activity
58
narrative Consistency
76
Reading the index
Conviction = composite of positioning, options skew, analyst revisions, insider activity, and narrative-text consistency. Fragility = volatility / dispersion of those components. High conviction + low fragility → robust consensus. High conviction + high fragility → vulnerable consensus, often a turning point.